Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Tonight's prediction

In tonights debate we can expect to see a couple of things. First, this will be the first time that Obama has the privelege of being in a mainly liberal audience. Second, McCain will seem as rigid as ever as he usually does in these formal debates where he can't strut his stuff. Third, the last debate before the election is usually the most exciting because it is a perfect time to unveil new strategies or to actually verbally assault your opponent. Lastly, McCain will get a chance to practice what he will have to say to David Letterman Thursday night when he tries to apologize for skipping out on Letterman a couple of weeks ago.

Although there is little chance that McCain can make up the lost ground that has occurred over the past 3 weeks, this debate actually might be interesting. The first two were quite mundane with no real questions being answered or issues being addressed. This debate could get ugly and could also get down to business which all Americans would like to see from both candidates. It should be very interesting to watch, and my prediction is that after tonight McCain's numbers will go up slightly because I believe he will do something tonight to change the tone of his campaign. Obama needs to watch out tonight and remain calm and composed to keep this lead that has been increasing ever since our economic crisis.

Friday, October 10, 2008

Exactly the problem

Do you know who Neel T. Kashkari is? You shouldn't unless you are deeply involved with the treasury department and have literally nothing better to do with your life. Mr. Kashkari has been Hank Paulson's special aide within the treasury for the past two years, and before that they were both involved with the investment firm Goldman Sachs. Kashkari has only been involved with the investing world for 6 years, but has been given the job of administering the $700 billion bailout plan.

This is exactly what is wrong with the U.S. economy. All that bull every politician spouts on and on about getting rid of the "good 'ole boys" system should be screaming at this appointment. Paulson could have tapped literally any investment banker, broker, economics guru to do this job, but instead he picked an aide whom he had only met 2 years ago. Simply giving this job to someone that is from the same economic fraternity as you is unexceptable Mr. Paulson. There were so many individuals that were considered candidates by the media and the general public, but instead we have a 35-year old with only 6 years experience.

Now I could be wrong. It is quite possible that Mr. Kashkari is just the man to take on this enormous responsibility and help rescue the U.S. economy. I don't know the man, but I know one thing...he isn't what the American people want to hear, but should be used to with this atrocious adminstration.

Just like every other blunder made by the current administration, there is no effort made to sell this decision to the public and to convince us that this is the right choice. The war in Iraq, the Patriot Act, response to Katrina, and not this...all of these were acted upon and weren't sold to the public as being the "right" choice. Previous presidents and administrations have been excellent making crucial decisions, and more importantly selling them to the American public.

Mr. Kashkari you may very well be a great choice for this position, but psychologically you are the exact problem with the current economic system and crisis. My thoughts are with you simply because if you do screw up, it means not just hell for you, but hell for all of us.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Proof

You want proof that this economic crisis has hit everyone. As a teacher we often go on field trips and obviously we need to collect money to go places. What is different about this year is that no one, and I mean no one, is paying in cash only check. Money is so tight that very few families are willing or able to spare even $50 in cash. This credit crunch is real and unfortunately it is going to get much worse for the consumer before it gets better.

From Bull and Bear to Utter Despair

Remember the date October 10th for two reasons. First in 2007 it marked the highest close of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), over 14000, but in 2008 it will mark the lowest opening since 2003. The DJIA has fallen by close to 40% in just one year, which is almost unprecedented...the only other time it ever happened was in 1929 and the atmosphere was very black.
Only months ago the pundits and economists were debating whether or not we were in a recession or not. We are without a doubt in the midst of a crash. The DJIA and most other indexies have plummeted by almost 30% in just 10 trading days. This is the defnition of a crash and it is only going to get worse, not better, over the next months and probably years. The $700 billion bailout plan is like putting a band-aid on a severe laceration and the government has no idea what to do except to react in times of emergency.
It is time to face facts and realize that the government is not going to do anything to help or prevent things from worsening. When the G-7 meet this weekend all that will happen is they will all collectively soil themselves. Instead of drastically cutting interest rates, nationalize struggling companies, or doing anything they will just come out publicly and say we need to wait for things to pan out.
This market will reach its absolute bottom in January of 2009 when the economy fully collapses under the tremendous pressure of the credit crunch. When people begin to realize that they can not buy the usual gifts or travel to the usual places is when everyone will begin to realize that this is a true collapse of the stock market.
There is no bull or bear...only utter despair

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

McCain's Last Chance

Tonight's debate will have one of two outcomes. John McCain should win since this particular town hall style debate benefits him because he is free to roam around and talk to people. This atmosphere tends not to make John McCain look as old and rigid, which is precisely why he tends to host events with this same format. If Barack Obama happens to "win" tonight's debate then I think it could mark the end of the chance that McCain is still in this race.
McCain, Palin, and the Republicans have already resorted to year old claims of Obama associating with terrorists like Jeremiah Wright and Timothy Ayers. First of all these claims have been vetted in the media and really don't have the legs to stand on, but to be fair I will open that can of worms. Google the names John Vogler, or Alaskan Independence Party, or Thomas Muthee and you can learn all about domestic terrorists that Sarah Palin has closer ties to than Barack Obama does to anyone.
With only 28 days to go McCain is already beginning to end his campaign efforts in states like Michigan and is having to defend states that the Republicans haven't had to defend in over 15 years. Virginia, Florida, and Colorado have been solid red states for the last 3 elections, but this year all three could end up being blue. Johnny you better hope you do well tonight or else its all over buddy.

Friday, October 3, 2008

A Rove-Like Strategy

You have to love the Rove-esque strategy the McCain emplored upon Mrs. Palin. I can just hear the words spewing from the mouth of Karl right now...
"Let's make the broad look as dumb and moronic as possible and then that damn liberal media will run with that right until the debate night. Then those stupid commis will get blown out of the water by her performance. We will prep the s*** out of her and she might actually sound like she belongs up their with Biden. All she has to do is just not lose by a lot. Then it will seem like a win and that broad can win us the election."
God I hate him, but its true. All week Katie Couric made her look like a simpleton from Wasilla (which I still think she is), but she did OK in the debate so to most people that sounds like a win. I know that I don't want my VP to be someone who utters the phrase "gee-golly" on national TV, but idiots vote too. In most polls 80% of people said that Biden won, but the lasting impact of this debate will be the re-enrgizing of the Palin personna. Oh, and Karl...burn in hell with Bill O'Reilly.

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Alternative Bailout Plan

Instead of having Congressman scramble to understand a problem, let alone solve it, we need to to tap economists to save the country from this crisis. "Sweetening" the deal with tax breaks to Puerto Rican rum bottlers and companies that make wooden arrows for boy scouts (I couldn't have made this stuff up) will do nothing to make the plan better. Spreading the debt around still doesn't get rid of the problem just prolong it.

Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross has come up with an idea that is far superiour for many reasons. 1. Taxpayers can benefit.
2. Homeowners can get money from their foreclosed home.
3. Lending companies can generate capital
4. All mortgages suffering from foreclosure will be partially insured.
5. He will put one billion dollars for it.

See the whole plan here: http://www.cnbc.com/id/26990370

McCain's baggage

Every political pundit and commentator seems to think and are seriously debating that McCain is really contemplating getting rid of Palin as his running mate and essentially cutting his losses. Most opinions on this are based along the lines that it is too late for McCain to do this because he take just as big of a hit for unloading her as keeping her on the ticket. However, he has one last option especially is the House votes down the "sweetened" bill that the Senate passed (every senator should be ashamed for adding those sweeteners and making a mockery of this dire situation)

McCain and his campaign (I think he is still campaigning eventhough it doesn't seem like it) could have McCain state that the economy is in the worst shape since the Great Depression and that if he does not take immediate action it will be prolonged. At that point he could and should tap the man that should have been the VP nominee is McCain wasn't so worried about the Christian Right. Ladies and gentlemen...I give you....Mitt Romney.

Eventhough I am a democrat through and through, I like Romney. Smart, funny, good looking, and likeable. He should have been the nominee for either President or VP because in either case his ticket would be leaps and bounds ahead of Obama due to his expertise on economic issues.

This campaign will go down in history as the worst campaign of all time for just alone nominating Palin as VP, but this could save it...or at least keep the debate from drowning too quickly. The McCain campaign should be honored because they have done something previously thought to be impossible....run a campaign worse than Rudy Guiliani!

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

Voting Issues

It is unfathomable to me (I love that word) that there is a serious possibility that there may be another voting issue in the state of Florida. Ever election I have voted in which is probably about 12 or so looking at national, state, and local elections, there has never, ever been a problem. When using both the old crank-style machines and the new optical scanners there has never been a problem in the state of CT...or any other state for that matter. There are two possible reasons for this.



1. Florida voters can't figure it out

2. Florida is run by completely incompetent officials, politicians, and bureaucrats.



Ding, ding, ding we have a winner...#2 by unanimous decision. Even a person with very little intelligence can figure out how to fill in a circle with a #2 pencil so I do not believe that Floridians are that dumb. That only leaves the incompetent officials that we came to know in love in the magical election year of 2000. Give them credit though...at least this time they are making it publicly known that there will be a screw up instead of it being a surprise.



To be serious for a moment...it is time for Florida to figure this crap out. Stop trying new fang-dangled techniques that have not been proven effective and use the same methods all the other states have successfully used. If a screw-up happens again there needs to be a serious punishment handed out to those in charge and a full investigation needs to conducted by the FBI not another politician that was in the bag for Bush in 2000.



Oh, and by the way Florida. If you do screw up maybe you should make sure that the problems don't just happen in districts with high minority populations. You don't want to look like you have committed voter fraud and violated the 15th amendment and by doing so revealing your racism do you? Do you?

Monday, September 29, 2008

Crisis vs. Campaign

This post will be short and sweet. I believe that both presidential candidates need to reveal who their secretary of the treasure will be. With such a looming crisis and such a large check (supposedly not a black one) being written to this post, the American people deserve to know who their candidate will give that position to. Hank Paulson only has less than 4 months left at the head of the treasury department and we all deserve to know who will fill the position on January 20th.

A Blessed Sight

It's a joy, honestly, to see and hear that Congressional Republicans are doing something that I believe in. Putting aside their ideologies and party agenda and really focusing on the impact their legislation will have on their constituents. A thank you goes out to those GOP house members who decided that this problem is too large and too important to be solved with the first solution that comes to their desks. It is also quite a relief to hear soundbites from Republicans that show some care on their part for middle class families and not for CEOs.

When it comes to the other side of the aisle all I can do is the same thing that I did yesterday when the Mets blew it...just hang my head. Speaker Pelosi came out and said "the party is over". HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! Joe Scarborough nailed it on the head this morning when he mocked Pelosi for saying such a thing and then signing over $700 billion to bailout financial institutions. The Democrats messed this one up. They tried to pass this too quickly and didn't really think about any alternative plans.

So far on the financial crisis scoreboard. Republican - 1, Democrats - 0

Saturday, September 27, 2008

Debate winner

Last night's debate was for the most part all it lived up to be. To begin Jim Lehrer was a terrible moderator. He was far too concerned with how he looked and sounded and couldn't formulate questions that either candidate could understand or answer. Here is my scorecard as I watched it:
Economic Crisis - Obama
Favor the Bailout - McCain
Lead out of crisis - Obama
Taxes - Obama
Priorities Delayed - McCain
Healthcare - Obama
Alternative Energy - Both
Iraq - McCain
Overall Appearance - Obama

Final Score: Obama - 6 McCain - 4

McCain received low marks because he repeatedly went back to the fact that he wants to cut spending, but never really offered up any substance other than things that the government has to spend money on (Defense and entitlements). Obama was much better when responding to McCain's statements and was quick to say that something was just plain wrong and did it in a very respectful way. I though a key moment in the debate is when McCain summed up all of the alternative energy ideas in 2 seconds and glossed over them to get to something he saw as more important. He gets the point for the excellend job he did of giving an overview of how nuclear energy would improve the country's energy resources.

Although I think the overall winner was Obama there was one point of interest that stood out to me. McCain did an excellend job of telling the American people to forget the mistake that he and others made by getting us into the Iraq mess, but instead to look ahead to see and think about how we should manage Iraq in the future. If Obama and his campaign staff don't turn around and start talking about the future insteas of the past McCain could capitalize on this issue.

Lastly, here is what really matters...its called the Kennedy/Nixon rating. What this means is simply how each candidate came off to the American people and how we see the candidates in our minds. Obama looked like someone who was truly offended when things were offered up as fact when they were not true. He didn't come off as a scolding mother (Clinton) or a as a academic looking down on the American people (Gore), instead he made sure he kept mentioning "middle class families" and sounded presidential.

McCain on the other hand, came off as you old uncle Mort. I say this because he kept making snide references and bad jokes after which he would give us this weird, awkward chuckle that all old relatives make when they think something is funny and no one else does. The more important mistake that he made might have flown under the radar. He said at one point that Obama's tax cuts would exclude people "that made as low as $42000 a year." I hate to tell you John, but to many voters in this country that is a normal middle class salary. If any liberal media, other news outlet, and hopefully the Obama campaign pick up on this faux-pas it could really hurt McCain's numbers in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Virginia.

A sad, sad day

We need to take some time to recognize the passing of not just a movie legend, but a man whom all of us should strive to be. Paul Newman was an actor, and activist, a businessman, a provider of aid, and institution, and a saint. A man who has used his noteriety to create consumer products whose proceeds would go to noble causes like camps for underpriveleged children and children with terminal illnesses. The world has lost an icon, and a man you lived by the credo made so famous by John F. Kennedy, "ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country."

Rest in Peace Mr. Newman...you will be dearly missed.

I can't believe it!

Mark Friday September 26th on your calendar. For the first time in almost 2 years the Senate Majority leader Harry Reid finally took a stand and used his power in an appropriate manner. Day after day, month after month Reid did nothing but to let things slide, not hold Bush accountable for anything, and act like a junior senator. Finally he comes out on the airwaves and denounces a republican who hampered progress. He repeated during his press conference "the insertion of presidential politics into this process has not been helpful...it has been helpful."

Congratulations Harry Reid. You have finally started to act like the Democratic Senate Majority Leader, but its too bad that in less than 40 days that position will be taken away from you due to your lackluster 2 years in that position. Do I hear Senate Majority Leader Clinton?

Friday, September 26, 2008

The Real Problem

Politicians, economists, Tv personalities and everyday Americans have been banging their heads against the wall all week to try and wrap their heads around this financial crisis. All of the options that have been proposed to try and stop a financial meltdown have ups and downs, and could probably all delay the problem from getting any worse. However, there is something far more important and far more dangerous that is at the heart of this recession and without it being fixed this country will never fully recover.

For the past 20 years this country has transformed from a country of consumers to a country of over-consumers. We are a country that is bombarded on a hourly basis with advertisements, slogans, and programs that reinforce the fact that you need to own not anything you can afford, but just plain old anything and everything. 20 years ago people weren't using credit cards or store cards for everything under the sun, they would use them for large purchases in lieu of large amounts of cash. Banks, credit card companies, and stores are more than willing to supply any joe six penny with a driver's license a line of credit just so they can end up charging them and interest rate of 30%. (This is absolutely criminal, but I'll save that for a later post)

TV is the greatest example. Ever since "reality shows" made their loud painful debut on television the American public is always shown how the better side lives and how we should want and try to live just like them. This encourages people to extend themselves outside their means and end up in a downward spiral of debt and depression. People with more than $10000 in credit card debt used to be frowned upon, but now someone with that much debt is seen as someone who needs to extend their credit limit.

The best way to solve this crisis is to really look at the heart of the problem. Banks, stores, and the heartless, guiltless, conscience-less credit card companies need to stop lending out money to just any consumer. Banks need to really look at the people who are trying to borrow and do a comprehensive job of finding out if they can really afford to process this loan. Bankers are too often just trying to make their customers happy instead of actually telling them that they can't afford this loan.

It's time to just bring people back down to reality and get this over-consuming done with. If this problem is not addresses the crisis will never really be averted...just postponed.

People just don't understand

I heard a theory today that stated "Why don't we just give every household $56000 instead of $700 billion to the banks"? People just don't understand that his problem is not that the country is in debt and people are loosing money. The problem that the banking system is the backbone of this country. Although I would love to have that $56000, here is why that money has to go to the banks instead of us taxpayers.

This country runs on the credit system. Cars, houses, TVs, refrigerators, everything in this country can and are bought using credit cards, store cards, and bank cards. But that is far less important than the real problem...entreprenurehip. Without lending money to the banks there is no way to encourage new investments in brash new technologies or ground breaking companies. Everyone hates to admit when something essentially runs their lives, but we live in a society that is run by banks whether we like it or not.

This "bailout" (which is the worst name ever....can't the Bush administration appoint someone who can sell something to the American public) will save the American economy for about 5 years. After that 5 years, if this country is not moving in a totally different direction I see no reason not to believe that a crisis like this won't happen again.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

Keating 5

You know it still blows my mind that John McCain is not being chastised for his near-criminal involvement in the Keating 5 scandal in the late 1980s. The current debate and conversation about McCain's lack of experience and knowledge when dealing with the economy is a good one because it is both his biggest weakness and the country's biggest looming problem. When it comes to the economy the largest blip on his radar is a scandal that almost destroyed the economy 20 years ago.

If you aren't familiar with it here is a brief summary. McCain took large contributions from an investment banker who was a constituent of his, Mr. Keating. He also received numerous "perks" like vacations and free jet flights for free from Mr. Keating. McCain was never convicted of any wrong-doing, but was reprimanded by the senate ethics committee for acting with poor judgement. This story needs to be focused on more in the following weeks, why it is not is a mystery to me.

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Palin vs. Pizza Hut

Despite my feelings on the beliefs held by vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin I can not effectively judge her because I don't know enough about her. Since I am not from Alaska I have only known her for about a month, and in that time she has not been vetted and certainly has not been put through any tough interviews (Hannity...even you could have done better you brown-noser). I will not fully judge her until the vice-presidential debates are conducted, in which I fully believe that Biden should be able to prove his worth. However, there is once conclusion we can reach.

John McCain chose Palin as his running mate in less time than it takes Pizza Hut to deliver your pizza. A 15 minute phone call was all John McCain needed to choose his running mate. What this says is that John "The Maverick" McCain is such an independent thinker that he chose her in such a short amount of time.

Wait...sorry. It means that just like Bush he is being told what to do by Republicans so that he can have a name on the ticker that would probably tell Jesus Christ to put more clothes on. Mark my words if McCain/Palin win this country will reach its lowest, most conservative, most depressing period in history.

Oh the hypocrisy!

So far this week Lehman Bros., AIG, WAMU, and Merrill Lynch have all undergone what is being called an economic crisis. I have to agree with that statement, and I also agree that more will still fail or be bought out in the coming weeks and maybe montsh because the market still has 18 months until it really starts to rally again. The business world and wall street financials especially are suffering from something that they themselves created. The housing crisis which was caused by banks taking on mortgages that they knew would eventually fail, is responsible for all of this. So how do we solve this crisis that not only has slaughtered the housing market, but virtually all aspects of the economy?

How about a housing credit to all new home-buyers to help them get back on their feet just like Gerald Ford did in the late 70s and was castrated for at the time. How about a cut in interest rates by good old Ben Bernanke because in his Princeton educated mind he must realize that something needs to be done. How about the SEC actually does its job and enforces the rules it wrote for itself to help protect companies and all those with money in the market.

Instead, the government (which the last time I checked is still capitalist in nature) has decided to either just let companies fail or bail them out for the bargain price of $85 billion. This country was formed on the notion that business could thrive as long as the government stayed out of the economy. However, in this day and age that only means that in good times the government should leave the economy alone, but when the good old boys that run these companies screw everything up because they can't see past their bonuses they come crying to the government. Bailouts!!!! This is not the Soviet Union, this is Adam Smith's dream of a democratic capitalist nation. But when the business world makes its own bed, the government has to jump in with the economy and make things even worse.

My message is that this country needs to wake up and realize that "Reaganomics" or trickle-down economics does not, has not, and will never work. The only way to revitalize the economy is to help out those at the bottom and it just so happens we are at the perfect time to do so. We can't rely on Whitless Ben because his favorite thing to do is to perpetuate the status quo. So, just in time for the holiday season you enact a new stimulus giving people money in their pockets that without a doubt will be recirculated into the economy. No more bailouts, no more economic intervention, and no more relying on trickly-down policy. If the general public is energized for the holiday season the economy will rebound like to economist could or is willing to predict.

Won't happen, but there is always hope.

Welcome

Greetings to those interested in politics, economics, and other news. This blog is dedicated to those who want the truth and want the facts from an everyday man just like you. The news media has become too bogged down with rediculous facts and is biased beyond belief (cough, fox, cough). My only goal is to educate and to encourage debate because arguments and disagreements are what makes change...and clearly this country needs change.